Second Train Could Reduce Road Congestion

Posted on Tue, Apr. 25, 2006
FOCUS ON BROWARD

BY WINGATE PAYNE
wpayne@miamiherald.com

Some time in the next year or so, South Florida politicians may be asked to give up part or all the billion dollars spent on a commuter train and to spend more on a train a few miles east.

Accountants would call the first billion ''sunk costs,'' money spent that can't be recovered. Economists say that sunk costs drive decisions to throw good money after bad because people (especially politicians) can't believe they've wasted money.

The train is Tri-Rail, the three-county commuter train derided as the train from nowhere to nowhere. The irony is that Tri-Rail may be closing in on its first real success since its inception in 1988. Yet, there's serious talk about a commuter line on the Florida East Coast track.

In the 1980s Tri-Rail was to be a three-year, $118 million experiment largely federally funded during major work on I-95. Drivers surely would flee construction gridlock, right?

The logical track to use was the FEC track, running through the major downtowns of South Florida. The FEC said No. The default was the CSX track, between one to five miles west of the FEC track in much of Broward and Palm Beach, but jogging farther west both in Miami-Dade, requiring transfers to Metrorail, and in northern Palm Beach County.

From the start, things went wrong for Tri-Rail. Absolute gridlock on I-95 didn't happen. CSX had a single track and delayed Tri-Rail for its freight trains. The state spent $375 million (including interest) to buy the track, but freight-commuter conflicts continued. So Tri-Rail spent $338 million on double tracking, a project nearly completed.

(Operating subsidies and other costs push the public cost to the billion-dollar figure over 14 years. Last year's budget was $34 million, this year's up $4 million for added service. The fare box pays 25 percent of operations.)

Tri-Rail has never reached the 1988 estimate of 14,000 daily trips (7,000 round trips). With double-tracking, it's moving toward 11,000 trips, including hauling 1,000 kids to Palm Beach magnet schools. Its rush-hour service is greatly improving. Discounted monthly passes are $60, hard to beat given gas prices. Even better for the cause of mass transit, traffic is a lot worse than it was in 1988.

Enter the FEC. After Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties began talking about using part of its track, the FEC asked in 2004 for an overall study of regional commuting.

Scott Seeburger, project manager for the state Department of Transportation, says mayors and commissioners are telling him to start the service ``yesterday.''

Yes, it's easy to fall in love with the thought of downtown trains in the refreshed urban centers of South Florida. What's not to like? Traffic can only get worse. When Tri-Rail started, South Florida's population was four million. In 2000, it was 5.2 million. By 2030, it may be seven million.

Yet, the FEC is single-tracked except for six sidings. It runs 27 daily trains, hauling crushed rock from Miami-Dade, goods from Port of Miami and Port Everglades, chemicals, and more.

What about Tri-Rail's future? No FEC enthusiast is comfortable with the question. Seeburger's prediction is that service would shift from rail to rail, starting on the FEC on the coast at Jupiter, jumping to Tri-Rail at West Palm Beach, connecting to the FEC in northern Pompano Beach with both lines operating in Miami-Dade to the airport and into downtown.

Horseback estimates for control of the FEC track range to a billion dollars. Many millions more would go for stations and parking, double-tracking, new connecting bus or light rail service, the connectors between the two rails if needed, and so forth. With the tightening of the federal spigot, local politicians will have to put our money where their starry eyes are.

So while the FEC study proceeds, we'll have a chance to see if South Floridians who could be well served by Tri-Rail's route will in fact surrender their car keys, and we'll get a chance to see if politicians have the appetite to make judgments without the compromises or defaults that prove so costly.